I'm happy to report that this year, almost every nook and cranny not occupied by the actual "sure things" was filled by my underdogs. My verbal utterings as the nominees are read off the list in any other year usually range from, "Of course", "Bogus", "Come on..", "Really?". This year, it was closer to "Whoa", "Whoa!", "WHOA!!". I can't remember being more satisfied and genuinely shocked overall than this year. Maybe I cared more since I saw twice as many movies as I had last year, so the performances and directors that really stuck with me I felt I could, and should defend since it seemed like I had seen everything and could definitively say he/she deserved to be a finalist (There's still about 20 movies from this year I haven't seen and feel I need to see...because I'm an addict). But this year, in particular, emits a sentiment that a changing of the guard is beginning to occur inside the Academy: less obligatory nods to flavorless "socially conscious" (and usually mediocre) movies, no nods to big (overrated) comebacks (Redford) and perennial Oscar favorites (Hanks) or just human favorites (Oprah). It represents, perhaps, that we're on the precipice of another new wave of cinema, not because more of the right kinds of movies are getting made and seen, but because this year might be the start of getting back to celebrating the right kinds. That the Oscars might actually mean what they should mean. The urgency to wave new and younger voters into the Academy is a joy to hear because the same old, sentimental, rigid Academy stiffs that have been so predictable the past decade were once the same young guns who got A Clockwork Orange, Taxi Driver, and Dog Day Afternoon nominated. The times they are a changin'. Here's a few random thoughts on the nominations this year:
-One popular narrative is that this was the black year in cinema, and that the Academy was being racist for only including 12 Years A Slave, and completely shutting out Fruitvale Station and Lee Daniels' The Butler. First off, I agree it was a terrific year for films primarily starring and made by African Americans, but to say that voters are racist for not including the other two is nonsense. 12 Years A Slave is a vastly superior movie to the other two, and while I would give Dallas Buyers Club and Philomena's Best Picture spots to them, their absence of nominations is more due to when they were released, which is admittedly a problem. But it's not the Academy's fault, it's no secret that you have a better chance of getting nominated the later in the year you release that picture, so really it's up to the filmmakers who want to risk losing money going against three other awards contenders on a November weekend, or dominate the box office early in the year. It's not like Fruitvale Station even really had a choice like that, if it doesn't go to Sundance, it maybe never gets distribution from Weinstein Co. Let's not forget, it's still really just a Sundance darling, to expect it to stay in the epicenter of awards conversations for a full year like Beasts of the Southern Wild did last year is wishful thinking. And Lee Daniels' The Butler is a far stranger movie than its commercials would have you think, the reviews calling it Oscar bait when it first came out got it wrong, it's Oscar imitation meat. And for that matter, 12 Years, which I think will win Best Picture, is another bewildering horror show that the Academy usually doesn't cuddle close to, all to say that Slave's raw power and haunting affect was enough to carry it to the finish line, and the other two, while perfectly adequate films, weren't making enough noise at the end to get in.
-The Academy really likes Alexander Payne and David O. Russell movies. Payne snuck in as Best Director, when he was thought to be on the fringe at best, and for a very bare-bones, smaller project. His lead Bruce Dern beat out critically adorned Robert Redford for the old-timer spot in the Best Actor race, rightly so in my opinion. David O. Russell got his third Director nomination in four years, and for an unprecedented second year in a row, got his actors a nomination in each category. Pretty remarkable. This year, I believe each of the main four actors were all deserving, but last year's supporting nominations were a stretch. Nonetheless, Russell's zany energy that he infects his actors with clearly brings back fleeting memories of Grant-Hepburn and Bogey-Bacall screwball classics to the older Academy members. Russell has said that American Hustle is the end of a trilogy with the other parts being The Fighter and Silver Linings Playbook, and that his next film, stylistically, will be much different. We'll have to wait and see if Russell's new stuff does it for the Academy the way his trilogy really, really did. It's interesting that the voters used to feel this way about the Coen Brothers, but Inside Llewyn Davis was only nominated for a couple technical awards, even though their more abstract A Serious Man was nominated for Best Picture. I guess their muse-ship has been temporarily removed, until it's not. The Brothers are never more than a picture away from returning to the Kodak Theatre.
-Tom Hanks was thought to be a shoo-in for Captain Phillips, most supporters saying the last twenty minutes is one of the finest stretches of performance he's ever given. I would concur, but I would also say much of the film before that, he is rather passive, being overshadowed by some of the scarier Somalis. Which makes it baffling that one of the more compassionate pirates, played by Barkhad Abdi, did get nominated without the film's indispensable movie star. Not that Abdi doesn't deserve it, but to think that it would be without Hanks would have been hard to imagine a month ago. Philomena, a very precious, very British movie that you forget almost instantly once you walk out of the theatre got a Best Picture nomination, thanks to one man. Or should I say warlock? Ogre? By any means, he is one hell of an Oscar campaigner: Harvey Weinstein. And Dallas Buyers Club, a movie 20 years in the making, got a Best Picture nod as well. You can't keep all socially-conscious drub out, and while it boasts a powerhouse performance by McConaughey, did anyone else feel it was a little contrived having it be about a homophobe who has to learn acceptance by being around gays and trannies all the time? Well, it's based on a true story, right? Uh, well, news has arisen (at a rather convenient time, don't you think?) that McConaughey's character, Ron Woodruff, was actually bi-sexual. So, why would they make him straight in the movie? Uh-oh for Dallas Buyers Club's Oscar chances. Not that it had a real shot at Best Picture, but it could derail its two stars', both of whom are big front-runners, otherwise perfectly smooth rides to the Kodak stage.
Here are the nominees in the 6 major categories, plus those who I'd replace, as well as honorable mentions in each category, and my picks for who will win and should win on the big night.
Oscar-nominated movie(s) I haven't seen: Before Midnight
Side note: Behind the Candelabra would have been a front-runner in every eligible category had it gotten picked up by a studio like it deserved. Alas, it was picked up by HBO, and must settle for being the greatest TV movie ever.
These are all in no particular order.
BEST PICTURE (anywhere from 5 to 10 nominees; 9 this year)
Nominees:
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years A Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
Who I'd Replace:
Side Effects, Spring Breakers, The Spectacular Now, Drinking Buddies, Inside Llewyn Davis
for Dallas Buyers Club, Nebraska, Philomena, Captain Phillips
High Honorable Mention:
Blue Jasmine, Captain Phillips, Frances Ha, Nebraska
Honorable Mention:
The Place Beyond The Pines, Mud, This Is The End, The Bling Ring, Pacific Rim, The Conjuring, Lee Daniels' The Butler, Star Trek: Into Darkness, Much Ado About Nothing, Short Term 12, Prisoners, Rush, Enough Said, The Counselor, All Is Lost, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, Upstream Color
Should Win and Will Win: 12 Years A Slave
I will go further in depth with my Top 10 of 2014 post early next week. This is by no means a lock, Gravity is very close behind, and American Hustle has a puncher's chance, having split evenly between them the Producers and Screen Actors Guild Awards. While Gravity is a technical landmark, that almost never is enough to sew up the Best Picture race. It wasn't enough for Avatar, which is the most successful movie of all time, and also amazing to look at. American Hustle will not win unless it wins its Director and Screenplay awards, which I don't see happening. This is an actors' movie, but there's not a lurking-beneath-the-surface bigger meaning that the Best Picture usually goes for. Which is why, I believe, 12 Years A Slave covers all the bases: It's about an important time in America, it stays with you in ways few movies do, and perhaps most important, one would look like an ignorant ass trying to oppose a film about the brutality of slavery. That brutality may turn off some voters who are dismayed by its relentless depiction of human nature at its worst. But it does not feel in any way like pandering or backing its audience into a corner, it's an important, artfully executed film and a necessary one, and also the best of the year.
BEST DIRECTOR
Nominees:
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
Steve McQueen, 12 Years A Slave
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
Who I'd Replace:
Spike Jonze, Her; Joel & Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
for Russell & Payne
Honorable Mention:
Payne; Russell; Steven Soderbergh, Side Effects; Harmony Korine, Spring Breakers; Sofia Coppola, The Bling Ring; Ron Howard, Rush; Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips; Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine; J.C. Chandor, All Is Lost; Noah Baumbach, Frances Ha
Should Win: Steve McQueen, 12 Years A Slave
Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
A two man race here with Cuaron the slight favorite. I've gone back and forth with this one, but I feel like this will be the consolation prize for Gravity not getting Best Picture, and Cuaron, who had this idea for years and had to wait until the technology was far enough along to push it into production. I think that patience will be rewarded, and while Steve McQueen's exquisite long takes and close-ups are essential to the tone of his film, Gravity is not only the all-time "You have to see it on a big screen" film, but also the all-time "How the hell did they do that?" film. You could argue that James Cameron didn't get it for Avatar, but he was going against Kathryn Bigelow, at a time in which the Academy felt it needed to end the drought of females losing the Best Director award (not that she didn't earn it). Once the Director's Guild Award is announced, we'll have a much clearer picture of who will win.
BEST ACTOR
Nominees:
Christian Bale, American Hustle
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years A Slave
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Who I'd Replace:
Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis; Joaquin Phoenix, Her
for Bale & Dern
Honorable Mention:
Bale; Dern; Jude Law, Side Effects; Tye Sheridan, Mud; Leonardo DiCaprio, The Great Gatsby; Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station; Forest Whitaker, Lee Daniels' The Butler; Chris Hemsworth, Rush; Miles Teller, The Spectacular Now; Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips; Robert Redford, All Is Lost
Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Will Win: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
The Dallas Buyers Club controversy isn't the only thing going against McConaughey, have you listened to any of his acceptance speeches this January? He's clearly been waiting years to get awards, because he's got a lot on his mind, including Neptune? (Watch the SAG acceptance speech) His loopiness could be a turn-off for some voters who want a winner that's a tad more cordial and restrained. I personally love it because it's not the same boring, predictable speech that we've heard a thousand times. But voters love redemption stories, or mid-career reinvigoration, and there have been none more notable recently than McConaughey's. I'd be very surprised if he didn't win, I suppose I'm just grasping at straws, trying to think of ways it couldn't happen, because the runaway best performance in any category for me was Leonardo DiCaprio. Some kind of valve was uncorked that unleashed the most insane, animated, physical, and downright hysterical acting Leo has ever given. I really do think, given the lewd, crude, obscene nature of the character, that the fact he was nominated at all in this category which was maybe the deepest it has ever been with worthy contenders, he has a shot.
BEST ACTRESS
Nominees:
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Who I'd Replace:
Rooney Mara, Side Effects; Brie Larson, Short Term 12; Olivia Wilde, Drinking Buddies
for Bullock, Dench, & Streep
Honorable Mention:
Bullock; Dench; Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Enough Said; Shailene Woodley, The Spectacular Now; Jennifer Lawrence, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire; Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha; Amy Seimetz, Upstream Color
Should win and will win: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
This is one of the absolute locks. Walking out of Blue Jasmine this summer, I could practically hear the enscribers chipping Cate Blanchett's name into the Best Actress trophy. Voters love crazy, especially from women, and none were more wacko and mesmerizing than Blanchett. I also equally loved Amy Adams in American Hustle, whose first half could have been re-titled Amy Adams Conquers the World. Her nomination is good enough for me, as she was on the fringe before last week. She, in my mind, is the best living actress, and her date with a golden man is coming soon, just not this year.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees:
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years A Slave
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Who I'd Replace:
James Franco, Spring Breakers; Jake Gyllenhaal, Prisoners
for Abdi & Leto
Honorable Mention:
Abdi; Leto; James Franco, This Is The End; Ryan Gosling, The Place Beyond The Pines; Dane DeHaan, The Place Beyond The Pines; Matthew McConaughey, The Wolf of Wall Street; Matthew McConaughey, Mud; Danny McBride, This Is The End; Andrew Dice Clay, Blue Jasmine; Bobby Cannavale, Blue Jasmine; Keith Stanfield, Short Term 12; James Gandolfini, Enough Said; Kyle Chandler, The Wolf of Wall Street; Kyle Chandler, The Spectacular Now; Brad Pitt, The Counselor; Will Forte, Nebraska; Jonah Hill, This Is The End; Jeremy Renner, American Hustle; Chris Pratt, Her; John Goodman, Inside Llewyn Davis
Should Have Won: James Franco, Spring Breakers
Should Win (of those nominated): Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Will Win: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
I'll talk more about Franco in my Top 10 post. This category is the other one that's completely wrapped up. Leto has swept every award, and while his performance was moving, it wasn't a standout performance for me. It was an impressive turn for someone that's been away from acting for some time, and that is one of the reasons voters have gone crazy about this role. Leto was one of the more prominent character actors at the turn of the millenium, but stepped away for his music career. So, between the comeback narrative, and the cross-dressing, and the deadly disease, Leto is the closest thing to "Oscar bait" this year. Of those nominated, I most enjoyed Bradley Cooper. He hits high notes in David O. Russell movies that he doesn't anywhere else, and his jittery, instinctual motor-mouth Richie DiMaso found Cooper at his funniest and most magnetic.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees:
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years A Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska
Who I'd Replace:
Scarlett Johanssen, Her
for Roberts
Honorable Mention:
Katie Chang, The Bling Ring; Emma Watson, The Bling Ring; Melonie Diaz, Fruitvale Station; Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels' The Butler; Melissa Leo, Prisoners; Julianne Moore, Don Jon; Cameron Diaz, The Counselor; Mickey Sumner, Frances Ha; Anna Kendrick, Drinking Buddies; Margot Robbie, The Wolf of Wall Street; Rooney Mara, Her; Olivia Wilde, Her; Amy Adams, Her; Carey Mulligan, Inside Llewyn Davis
Should Win and Will Win: Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years A Slave
It's between Jennifer Lawrence and Lupita Nyong'o. J-Law is the "it" girl, her popularity probably couldn't get much higher. I, like everyone else, find her public persona to be irresistible, and her range as an actress at her age is astonishing. However, I think her performance was the worst of the ensemble in American Hustle, and that's not to say she was bad, she dominates a couple scenes like few other actresses could, but she just wasn't in the movie enough to hold her in higher regard. The fact that critics are talking about her first when explaining things they liked about the movie is odd to me. There should be only one choice in this category: the anguish and endless misery that Nyong'o portrays with her Patsey is heartbreaking to an immeasurable degree. Patsey is among the most tragic movie characters I've ever seen, and Nyong'o's performance is among the most jaw-dropping film debuts ever.
Look out for my Top 10 post early next week. And I'll post again closer to the show with final predictions for the big night. Thanks for reading!
-Rex
@rexman2001
