(This is extremely last minute, but I had to catch up with all the nominated movies, which took me until this weekend. Having said that, I still haven't seen The Imitation Game but enough people whose taste I trust tell me it's akin to The Theory of Everything in quality. That's good enough for me to not feel bad about seeing it!)
2014 wasn't a spectacular year in movies, maybe not even a good one. For me, there were three films that were special (one especially so)... then everything else. Compared to last year, when every acting category was jam-packed with A-listers who gave really interesting performances, and the overall buzz and excitement about the Best Picture nominees seemed to be at a higher frequency wave, there just aren't as many stories or subplots to really get excited about with this group of nominees. I think the industry at large is aware also of this down year, which might explain some very curious trends with who was nominated. I'm fascinated that there was so much noise over a few movies that honestly probably aren't going to be remembered too fondly five, ten years from now. That is the power of film though, it's so subjective and ever-changing. Sadly though, in this current landscape, the general go-to setting of (unnecessary & useless, mostly) outrage in social media is tailor fit for movie awards season. Despite that, there are several front-runners for which a golden man would be richly deserved, and that is almost always enough to allow ourselves to forget the mediocrity of some nominated movies or misplaced rage for non-recognition of others. Let's dive in to a few hot topics:
-The biggest outcries of snubbery have came from the Selma camp. With its historically gigantic protagonist and (kinda self-promoted) ties to the current racial tensions the past year with Ferguson, it seemed all but a lock for Picture, Director, and Actor nominations (it only ended up getting Picture). With the success of 12 Years a Slave last year, it's certainly understandable that the filmmakers would believe this very Important thematically driven piece would be enough to garner nominations for their above-the-line cast and crew. The bread crumb trail of what is likened to a smear campaign started with an op-ed piece in the Washington Post tearing down director Ava duVernay's depiction of Lyndon B. Johnson as unfair and cruel. Other politically right-leaning journalists chimed in their agreement. Then the backlash from the liberal media was louder, and back and forth it went. First of all, there isn't one singular journalist out there with the writing prowess to stop a movie curtailed to get awards dead in its tracks, so let's throw that theory out the window. Secondly, the Selma team should have let those jabs from the conservative side roll off their back, instead they responded with vitriol and a defensiveness that probably didn't sit well with the overwhelmingly older male demographic of the current Academy voting body. That defensiveness came off as "if you don't like our movie, then you're racist," which really is like if the Still Alice filmmakers said "if you don't like our movie, then you hate senile people." Not a convincing argument, is it? It's too bad that they felt so ardent about taking that stance because I think much of Selma's strength as a film comes from its moderate and fair treatment of both the marchers and the Oval Office. Yes, Johnson is stubborn the whole film about pushing the Civil Rights Act through, but in the end, when he does, he's heralded. Conversely, Martin Luther King Jr. is not all savior. Some of the strongest scenes allude to his infidelities, and also to his followers' doubts about his non-violent approach. This is all secondary to the real reason Selma didn't get more nominations: it was released too late in the year. The ads and billboards can only do so much, you have to let word-of-mouth build and you can't do that if you give the Academy voters no time to see it. And although I really liked the film (and it does have strong direction and marvelous acting from Oyelowo and others), it's no 12 Years a Slave. Sometimes you can ride on the coattails of your film's quality, and I think the filmmakers/marketing team took that for granted. They can blame the snobby journalist in his ivory tower for being insensitive, but really, they shot themselves in the foot.
-Speaking of riding your film's quality to the finish line, The Theory of Everything, everybody! Wait no, I mean the opposite. The fact that this film has been in the conversation, not only that but a frontrunner, for its entire existence is beyond baffling to me. Why the Academy insists on having a flavorless, formulaic British biopic that takes no real swings artistically speaking as a Best Pic nominee every year is a mystery, but Theory and Imitation Game are drawing those straws this year. Not to say that Stephen Hawking isn't a fascinating subject, he is. But when all his scientific accomplishments are brushed over in a two-minute scene in which his friend explain his breakthrough theory by drawing it on a pub table with spilled beer, why is his life worth depicting? Eddie Redmayne seems like a really charming dude, and he is a talented actor, but his sweeping of all guild awards for this performance is again (Broken record over here, I know...) confusing, at best. It doesn't happen often that actors sweep every award leading to the Oscars, and when it does, it's usually for something so overwhelmingly great that there can be no other (Daniel Day Lewis for Lincoln & There Will Be Blood, Natalie Portman for Black Swan). For me, the physical transformation is all that he's playing, and that's not enough to be wowed. It's an accomplishment, but you could push over the emotional depth of his Hawking character with a feather. I have no problem with his being nominated, but to be such a huge favorite at this point with so many other strong lead actor performances is a shame. With that said, the Academy loves a comeback story, and has there been a better one than Michael Keaton this year? He gave probably one of the three best performances of the year by anyone in my opinion, and I do think he has a puncher's chance this year. His winning would be a wonderful thing because he's so unique and singular as a performer, I can't really see him being in this same spot again. This is the role of his lifetime, written specifically for him, and it'd be nice to see that rare perfect symbiosis of performer and role get rewarded.
-Wes Anderson is one of the most culturally polarizing artists of modern times. Everyone's got an opinion on him, whether in worship or dismay. He's been nominated three times before for screenplay twice and animated feature. He has three nominations this year for Grand Budapest Hotel. Not to take anything away from Wes because I think he is one of the finest filmmakers working today, but his film this year is not one of his strongest. So it's strange to see the abundance of endless praise from its release last winter through today, mainly because I don't think it really stands out above the rest of his movies, which is also one of his signatures that all his films are so alike aesthetically. In terms of the quirky spectrum, which is Wes' trademark stylistic attribute, it lands closer to the extreme end. Only his most diehard fans will defend the most quirky fantastical movies like The Life Aquatic & The Darjeeling Limited. I know Wes is capable of authentic relationships and dilemmas that aren't compatible only to the escapist illustrious dollhouse worlds that he likes to construct, but to anyone experiencing first love, heartbreak, or struggling to co-exist with dysfunctional family members (Rushmore, The Royal Tenenbaums, Moonrise Kingdom). I look at these Director and Picture nominations as a tribute to Wes' contribution to cinema since he emerged in the mid '90s (and also frankly because it was a weaker year). He will probably win for Screenplay this year, but the film itself is far from his crown jewel.
-There are three sure things in the acting categories: Julianne Moore, J.K. Simmons, and Patricia Arquette. Many are saying this is a career lifetime achievement award for Moore, who has been nominated four times previously but never won, and that may be true to some extent. This may not be her best performance (I'm still partial to Boogie Nights), but she is pretty damn great in Still Alice and gets even better as the movie goes on. When I'm actively rooting against someone in a category, it's either because I believe the performance was inferior to someone else's or I'm not a fan of their general persona. Moore has neither of those problems as she is endlessly radiant and affable, and while I'd still pick Rosamund Pike, I will not be upset when Jules undoubtedly ascends to the stage tonight. The supporting actor category was so, so close to being an all-timer. Four of these performances were so ridiculously captivating (including the will-be winner Mr. Simmons), I honestly have trouble picking a favorite. I haven't seen The Judge, but having seen Mr. Duvall act in another recent movie, I'm willing to bet the house that he doesn't reach the same level of excellence that Josh Brolin achieves in Inherent Vice. J.K. Simmons is one of the all-time "that guy" character actors, and I'm looking forward to seeing the culmination of all the tremendous work he's delivered in recent years. It is really tough for actresses, especially those 35 or older, to find great roles, especially ones in which they don't have to show skin or be the love interest of a male protagonist. Not to throw this back to the guys, but god bless Richard Linklater for writing such a realized authentic strong female character The vulnerability and total lack of vanity that Patricia Arquette put on the screen for Boyhood was astonishing. Her last scene of the movie is probably the single best-acted scene of any film this year. It will be a richly deserved win for her.
-The Directing and Picture nominations are both really close this year, which almost never happens. It's a two-man race between Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu and Richard Linklater, and their respective films. Some of the backlash against Boyhood is that it's a gimmick, that it's a totally uninteresting story, it's just the fact that it took 12 years to make that gives people a reason to recognize it. I'm not going to disagree that its production process is an integral part of why the movie is so magical, but the authenticity and realness (they are separate things) that the film gives to its settings and its characters put it so far out of reach of being correctly labelled a gimmick. In fact, much of the Boyhood dissenters seem to be coming from the Birdman camp, which is ironic because I think the latter is most certainly a gimmick-y movie. Not to say that's a bad thing, I really enjoyed Birdman, might have been the most fun I've had in a theatre last year. For the most part, the movie knows what it is and is fine staying in its wacky, free-roaming corner, but tries to go for something deep in the end, and it leaves you with a bad taste in your mouth. It is a technical marvel, but I don't think it seeps into your soul the way Boyhood does. In terms of voting, it really is a toss-up. I think whoever wins Director will also win Picture.
Here are my predictions for the evening, plus those who I'd replace as nominees, and honorable mentions for the six big categories. I realize some of my replacements had no chance at getting nominated, these are just my dream scenarios.
PREDICTIONS
BEST PICTURE (anywhere from 5 to 10 nominees):
AMERICAN SNIPER
BIRDMAN
BOYHOOD
THE IMITATION GAME
THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
SELMA
THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING
WHIPLASH
Who I'd replace:
UNDER THE SKIN, GONE GIRL, FOXCATCHER, INHERENT VICE, HAPPY CHRISTMAS, THE BABADOOK, WILD
for
AMERICAN SNIPER, THE IMITATION GAME, THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL, SELMA
Honorable mention:
THE IMMIGRANT, PALO ALTO, IDA, NIGHT MOVES, SNOWPIERCER, THE DOUBLE, THE ONE I LOVE, SELMA, ENEMY, NYMPHOMANIAC VOL. 1, NOAH, ONLY LOVERS LEFT ALIVE, NEIGHBORS, X-MEN: DAYS OF FUTURE PAST, OBVIOUS CHILD, EDGE OF TOMORROW, THE ROVER, LIFE ITSELF, GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY, FURY, NIGHTCRAWLER, INTERSTELLAR, A MOST VIOLENT YEAR
Will win and Should win: BOYHOOD
BEST DIRECTOR
Richard Linklater, BOYHOOD
Alejandro G. Inarritu, BIRDMAN
Bennett Miller, FOXCATCHER
Wes Anderson, GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL
Morten Tyldum, THE IMITATION GAME
Who I'd replace:
David Fincher, GONE GIRL; Damien Chazelle, WHIPLASH, Paul Thomas Anderson, INHERENT VICE
for
Miller, Anderson, Tyldum
Honorable Mention:
Wes Anderson, GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL; Denis Villenueve, ENEMY; Jonathan Glazer, UNDER THE SKIN; James Gray, THE IMMIGRANT; Darren Aronofsky, NOAH; Gia Coppola, PALO ALTO; Pawel Pawlikowski, IDA; Kelly Reichardt, NIGHT MOVES; David Michod, THE ROVER; Bong Joon-Ho, SNOWPIERCER; David Ayer, FURY; Dan Gilroy, NIGHTCRAWLER; Christopher Nolan, INTERSTELLAR; Bennett Miller, FOXCATCHER; Richard Ayoade, THE DOUBLE; Jennifer Kent, THE BABADOOK; Jean-Marc Vallee, WILD; J.C. Chandor, A MOST VIOLENT YEAR; Ava DuVernay, SELMA
Will win and Should win: Richard Linklater, BOYHOOD
BEST ACTOR
Steve Carell, FOXCATCHER
Benedict Cumberbatch, THE IMITATION GAME
Bradley Cooper, AMERICAN SNIPER
Michael Keaton, BIRDMAN
Eddie Redmayne, THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING
Who I'd replace:
Miles Teller, WHIPLASH; Jake Gyllenhaal, NIGHTCRAWLER; Joaquin Phoenix, INHERENT VICE; Jesse Eisenberg, THE DOUBLE
for
Carell, Cumberbatch, Cooper, Redmayne
Honorable Mention:
Ralph Fiennes, GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL; Jake Gyllenhaal, ENEMY; Joaquin Phoenix, THE IMMIGRANT; Tom Hiddleston, ONLY LOVERS LEFT ALIVE; Guy Pearce, THE ROVER; Ben Affleck, GONE GIRL; Brad Pitt, FURY; Matthew McConaughey, INTERSTELLAR; Steve Carell, FOXCATCHER; Channing Tatum, FOXCATCHER; Eddie Redmayne, THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING; Oscar Isaac, A MOST VIOLENT YEAR; Mark Duplass, THE ONE I LOVE; David Oyelowo, SELMA
Will win: Eddie Redmayne, THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING
Should win: Michael Keaton, BIRDMAN
BEST ACTRESS
Marion Cotillard, TWO DAYS, ONE NIGHT (haven't seen this, but gonna switch w/ another Cotillard performance, so it's cool)
Felicity Jones, THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING
Rosamund Pike, GONE GIRL
Julianne Moore, STILL ALICE
Reese Witherspoon, WILD
Who I'd replace:
Scarlett Johanssen, UNDER THE SKIN; Marion Cotillard, THE IMMIGRANT
for
Cotillard, Jones
Honorable Mention:
Emma Roberts, PALO ALTO; Jenny Slate, OBVIOUS CHILD; Jennifer Lawrence, THE HUNGER GAMES: MOCKINGJAY PART 1; Anna Kendrick, HAPPY CHRISTMAS; Essie Davis, THE BABADOOK; Felicity Jones, THE THEORY OF EVERYTHING; Elisabeth Moss, THE ONE I LOVE
Will win: Julianne Moore, STILL ALICE
Should win: Rosamund Pike, GONE GIRL
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert Duvall, THE JUDGE
Ethan Hawke, BOYHOOD
Edward Norton, BIRDMAN
Mark Ruffalo, FOXCATCHER
J.K. Simmons, WHIPLASH
Who I'd replace:
Josh Brolin, INHERENT VICE
for
Duvall
Honorable Mention:
Jeremy Renner, THE IMMIGRANT; Nat Wolff, PALO ALTO; Jack Kilmer, PALO ALTO; Zac Efron, NEIGHBORS; Dave Franco, NEIGHBORS; Jake Lacy, OBVIOUS CHILD; Robert Pattinson, THE ROVER; Zach Galifianakis, BIRDMAN; Logan Lerman, FURY; Shia LaBeouf, FURY; Riz Ahmed, NIGHTCRAWLER; Joe Swanberg, HAPPY CHRISTMAS; Benicio Del Toro, INHERENT VICE; Owen Wilson, INHERENT VICE; Henry G. Sanders, SELMA
Will win: JK Simmons, WHIPLASH
Should win: Mark Ruffalo, FOXCATCHER (best perf. of the year IMO)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Patricia Arquette, BOYHOOD
Laura Dern, WILD
Keira Knightley, THE IMITATION GAME
Emma Stone, BIRDMAN
Meryl Streep, INTO THE WOODS
Who I'd replace:
Tilda Swinton, SNOWPIERCER; Naomi Watts, BIRDMAN; Amy Ryan, BIRDMAN
for
Knightley, Stone, Streep
Honorable Mention:
Uma Thurman, NYMPHOMANIAC VOL. 1; Emma Watson, NOAH; Jennifer Connelly, NOAH; Mia Wasikowska, ONLY LOVERS LEFT ALIVE; Agata Kuleza, IDA; Alison Pill, SNOWPIERCER; Carrie Coon, GONE GIRL; Emma Stone, BIRDMAN; Andrea Riseborough, BIRDMAN; Rene Russo, NIGHTCRAWLER; Mia Wasikowska, THE DOUBLE; Katherine Waterston, INHERENT VICE; Melanie Lynskey, HAPPY CHRISTMAS; Reese Witherspoon, INHERENT VICE; Jessica Chastain, A MOST VIOLENT YEAR; Hong Chau, INHERENT VICE; Jena Malone, INHERENT VICE; Carmen Ejogo, SELMA; Kristen Stewart, STILL ALICE
Will win and should win: Patricia Arquette, BOYHOOD
Look out for my Top 10 of 2014 later this week!
-Rex
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